La Nina, now growing

Excerpts and links of interest to Beekeepers
User avatar
BDT123
Forum Regular
Posts: 242
Joined: December 3rd, 2016, 6:47 pm
Location: Drayton Valley, AB

La Nina, now growing

Unread post by BDT123 »

Sorry, but El Nino 2015 is now history. Starting new thread.
http://weather.gc.ca/saisons/animation_ ... ear&bc=sea
Please advise if this is in any way inappropriate.
I 'think' I see evidence of another La Nina year developing off Peru/Ecuador.
Would be pleased if others would look and advise on their observations.
Best regards,
Brian
53N, 115W, EL.850M
Allen Dick
Site Admin
Posts: 1824
Joined: February 25th, 2003, 10:09 pm
Location: Swalwell, Alberta
Contact:

Re: La Nina, now growing

Unread post by Allen Dick »

I don't know. If I want to predict the weather, I just look out the window. I know. That doesn't work either :(
Allen Dick, RR#1 Swalwell, Alberta, Canada T0M 1Y0
51° 33'39.64"N 113°18'52.45"W
http://www.honeybeeworld.com/Allen%27s%20Beehives.kmz
Forum owner/janitor
---
Customise your experience at Honeybeeworld Forum at your User control Panel
Change the appearance and layout with your Board Preferences
Please upload your own avatar picture at Edit Avatar. It's easy!
Return to main diary page
User avatar
BDT123
Forum Regular
Posts: 242
Joined: December 3rd, 2016, 6:47 pm
Location: Drayton Valley, AB

Re: La Nina, now growing

Unread post by BDT123 »

LOL, not here near the Foothills anyway!
We'll keep an eye on it. I'm a bit of a weather nut.
Brian
User avatar
BadBeeKeeper
Site Admin
Posts: 144
Joined: April 2nd, 2016, 2:01 pm
Location: Penobsot County, Maine

Re: La Nina, now growing

Unread post by BadBeeKeeper »

Allen Dick wrote: October 21st, 2017, 9:20 pmIf I want to predict the weather, I just look out the window. I know. That doesn't work either :(
Tell me about it. Seed garlic needs to get planted two weeks before the ground freezes. My psychic powers are not sufficiently developed, I missed it last year.
User avatar
BDT123
Forum Regular
Posts: 242
Joined: December 3rd, 2016, 6:47 pm
Location: Drayton Valley, AB

Re: La Nina, now growing

Unread post by BDT123 »

BBK, you have a great weather website in NOAA NWS. Heck, I use it. Forecast maps cover our area.
A big tip of the hat to the US taxpayer. It's brilliant, and shows the expertise that weather prognosticators have attained.
Looks like a good garlic planting week ahead, if you don't mind a few showers. What the heck, a week here or there won't matter with garlic. Friday looks good!
Best regards,
Brian
53 N, 115 W, El. 850M
User avatar
BDT123
Forum Regular
Posts: 242
Joined: December 3rd, 2016, 6:47 pm
Location: Drayton Valley, AB

Re: La Nina, now growing

Unread post by BDT123 »

User avatar
BDT123
Forum Regular
Posts: 242
Joined: December 3rd, 2016, 6:47 pm
Location: Drayton Valley, AB

Re: La Nina, now growing

Unread post by BDT123 »

User avatar
BDT123
Forum Regular
Posts: 242
Joined: December 3rd, 2016, 6:47 pm
Location: Drayton Valley, AB

Re: La Nina, now growing

Unread post by BDT123 »

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/b ... ble-double
Cooler than normal predicted for us up here. Sure couldn't tell from the 2 weeks of unseasonably warm weather we just had.
Brian
53N 115W El.850 M
User avatar
BDT123
Forum Regular
Posts: 242
Joined: December 3rd, 2016, 6:47 pm
Location: Drayton Valley, AB

Re: La Nina, now growing

Unread post by BDT123 »

January 8 update from NOAA.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf
Blast of cold here this week. -22C this morning.
Brian
53N 115W El.850 M
User avatar
BDT123
Forum Regular
Posts: 242
Joined: December 3rd, 2016, 6:47 pm
Location: Drayton Valley, AB

Re: La Nina, now growing

Unread post by BDT123 »

January ENSO blog post from NOAA regarding the current la Nina event. New post is the second Thursday of each month.
https://www.climate.gov/news-features/b ... iting-peak
Woke to -29C this morning. Frosty!
Best to all,
Brian
User avatar
BDT123
Forum Regular
Posts: 242
Joined: December 3rd, 2016, 6:47 pm
Location: Drayton Valley, AB

Re: La Nina, now growing

Unread post by BDT123 »

February ENSO blog post from NOAA.
https://www.climate.gov/news-features/b ... date-tuned
Also, some interesting discussion on US drought in 2nd year la Nina.
https://www.climate.gov/news-features/b ... ar-la-niña
Brian
User avatar
BDT123
Forum Regular
Posts: 242
Joined: December 3rd, 2016, 6:47 pm
Location: Drayton Valley, AB

Re: La Nina, now growing

Unread post by BDT123 »

Feb.19th update discussion from NOAA.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf
Brian
User avatar
BDT123
Forum Regular
Posts: 242
Joined: December 3rd, 2016, 6:47 pm
Location: Drayton Valley, AB

Re: La Nina, now growing

Unread post by BDT123 »

March 8th ENSO update from NOAA. 55% chance of change from La Nina to ENSO neutral in March to May period.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... sodisc.pdf
Also, the NOAA ENSO blog for March 8.
https://www.climate.gov/news-features/b ... ter’s-fine
Brian
User avatar
BDT123
Forum Regular
Posts: 242
Joined: December 3rd, 2016, 6:47 pm
Location: Drayton Valley, AB

Re: La Nina, now growing

Unread post by BDT123 »

I will start a new thread when NOAA declares la Nina over. May take a month or two, we'll see.
I think it's cool that we have the magnificent forecasting and observation capabilities of NOAA to give us some hints on how hard our weather will be. This relates to preparations for bees' feed and other needs. If I am out to lunch on this, let me know and I'll stop posting.
Like I said previously, I thank the American taxpayers for this magnificent ability to understand what is happening with our weather and why. Totally awesome. Thank you, y'all.
Brian
Allen Dick
Site Admin
Posts: 1824
Joined: February 25th, 2003, 10:09 pm
Location: Swalwell, Alberta
Contact:

Re: La Nina, now growing

Unread post by Allen Dick »

I do appreciate your posting this, although I found the sites a bit too much information for my casual interest.

I think we'd all find it very helpful if you can post a short summary of how you understand the current predictions will play out locally each time.

(And -- unrelated to bees -- I'd personally like to know whether, as I heard recently, there is a greater likelihood of a tornado in La Paz, BCS, MX this summer)
Allen Dick, RR#1 Swalwell, Alberta, Canada T0M 1Y0
51° 33'39.64"N 113°18'52.45"W
http://www.honeybeeworld.com/Allen%27s%20Beehives.kmz
Forum owner/janitor
---
Customise your experience at Honeybeeworld Forum at your User control Panel
Change the appearance and layout with your Board Preferences
Please upload your own avatar picture at Edit Avatar. It's easy!
Return to main diary page
User avatar
BDT123
Forum Regular
Posts: 242
Joined: December 3rd, 2016, 6:47 pm
Location: Drayton Valley, AB

Re: La Nina, now growing

Unread post by BDT123 »

Latest discussion from NOAA.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf
From March 19. It appears that the normal temps off the coast of Peru and Ecuador have cooled below La Nina levels again. I don't think the analysts have a clue what this means, but we are having some 'interesting' weather this season in North America.
Only 2 weeks ago it looked like La Nina was going to fade. Sea surface Temps off Peru and Ecuador had risen above the 'normal' line. Now, not so much; back to La Nina temps, -0.7 C below 'normal'.
This could get interesting. Or, maybe not.
Certainly a longer cold period in Drayton Valley than in recent memory. Last year pollen was coming in on March 28th/29th. Nothing in bloom yet, Aspens or willows, not even bud. 2 feet of snow on the ground and more forecast. Yikes!
Brian
User avatar
BDT123
Forum Regular
Posts: 242
Joined: December 3rd, 2016, 6:47 pm
Location: Drayton Valley, AB

Re: La Nina, now growing

Unread post by BDT123 »

Allen, presently no tornadoes forecast for La Paz, Baja.
Strong likelihood of tropical storms and hurricanes sometime in next 2 years!
Likelihood increases with time. Your call on where to put the boat.
Allen Dick
Site Admin
Posts: 1824
Joined: February 25th, 2003, 10:09 pm
Location: Swalwell, Alberta
Contact:

Re: La Nina, now growing

Unread post by Allen Dick »

Thanks. Re: MX, I'll keep watching.

Snow is finally starting to melt in Swalwell. Finally. Next: flooding, I'm afraid.
Allen Dick, RR#1 Swalwell, Alberta, Canada T0M 1Y0
51° 33'39.64"N 113°18'52.45"W
http://www.honeybeeworld.com/Allen%27s%20Beehives.kmz
Forum owner/janitor
---
Customise your experience at Honeybeeworld Forum at your User control Panel
Change the appearance and layout with your Board Preferences
Please upload your own avatar picture at Edit Avatar. It's easy!
Return to main diary page
User avatar
BDT123
Forum Regular
Posts: 242
Joined: December 3rd, 2016, 6:47 pm
Location: Drayton Valley, AB

Re: La Nina, now growing

Unread post by BDT123 »

Latest Enso blog post from the NOAA website.
https://www.climate.gov/news-features/b ... ks-beneath
The blogger thinks there is evidence that we will see ENSO neutral conditions by May. That is sea surface temperatures within +/- 0.5 degrees C compared to long term average SST.
Time will tell.
Brian
User avatar
BDT123
Forum Regular
Posts: 242
Joined: December 3rd, 2016, 6:47 pm
Location: Drayton Valley, AB

Re: La Nina, now growing

Unread post by BDT123 »

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... sodisc.pdf
A discussion of recent ENSO conditions, dated April 12.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf
A detailed look at ENSO conditions, dated March 9.
The detail look shows effects on US temperature and precipitation for the past 30 days and 90 days. These are on slides near end of the document.
Brian
Post Reply