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La Nina, now growing

Posted: October 21st, 2017, 8:59 pm
by BDT123
Sorry, but El Nino 2015 is now history. Starting new thread.
http://weather.gc.ca/saisons/animation_ ... ear&bc=sea
Please advise if this is in any way inappropriate.
I 'think' I see evidence of another La Nina year developing off Peru/Ecuador.
Would be pleased if others would look and advise on their observations.
Best regards,
Brian
53N, 115W, EL.850M

Re: La Nina, now growing

Posted: October 21st, 2017, 9:20 pm
by Allen Dick
I don't know. If I want to predict the weather, I just look out the window. I know. That doesn't work either :(

Re: La Nina, now growing

Posted: October 21st, 2017, 9:23 pm
by BDT123
LOL, not here near the Foothills anyway!
We'll keep an eye on it. I'm a bit of a weather nut.
Brian

Re: La Nina, now growing

Posted: October 22nd, 2017, 5:56 am
by BadBeeKeeper
Allen Dick wrote:
October 21st, 2017, 9:20 pm
If I want to predict the weather, I just look out the window. I know. That doesn't work either :(
Tell me about it. Seed garlic needs to get planted two weeks before the ground freezes. My psychic powers are not sufficiently developed, I missed it last year.

Re: La Nina, now growing

Posted: October 23rd, 2017, 10:46 pm
by BDT123
BBK, you have a great weather website in NOAA NWS. Heck, I use it. Forecast maps cover our area.
A big tip of the hat to the US taxpayer. It's brilliant, and shows the expertise that weather prognosticators have attained.
Looks like a good garlic planting week ahead, if you don't mind a few showers. What the heck, a week here or there won't matter with garlic. Friday looks good!
Best regards,
Brian
53 N, 115 W, El. 850M

Re: La Nina, now growing

Posted: December 6th, 2017, 11:15 am
by BDT123

Re: La Nina, now growing

Posted: December 6th, 2017, 11:21 am
by BDT123

Re: La Nina, now growing

Posted: December 15th, 2017, 10:25 am
by BDT123
https://www.climate.gov/news-features/b ... ble-double
Cooler than normal predicted for us up here. Sure couldn't tell from the 2 weeks of unseasonably warm weather we just had.
Brian
53N 115W El.850 M

Re: La Nina, now growing

Posted: January 10th, 2018, 12:33 pm
by BDT123
January 8 update from NOAA.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf
Blast of cold here this week. -22C this morning.
Brian
53N 115W El.850 M

Re: La Nina, now growing

Posted: January 11th, 2018, 4:42 pm
by BDT123
January ENSO blog post from NOAA regarding the current la Nina event. New post is the second Thursday of each month.
https://www.climate.gov/news-features/b ... iting-peak
Woke to -29C this morning. Frosty!
Best to all,
Brian

Re: La Nina, now growing

Posted: February 10th, 2018, 1:15 pm
by BDT123
February ENSO blog post from NOAA.
https://www.climate.gov/news-features/b ... date-tuned
Also, some interesting discussion on US drought in 2nd year la Nina.
https://www.climate.gov/news-features/b ... ar-la-niña
Brian

Re: La Nina, now growing

Posted: February 24th, 2018, 10:22 am
by BDT123
Feb.19th update discussion from NOAA.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf
Brian

Re: La Nina, now growing

Posted: March 8th, 2018, 11:07 am
by BDT123
March 8th ENSO update from NOAA. 55% chance of change from La Nina to ENSO neutral in March to May period.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... sodisc.pdf
Also, the NOAA ENSO blog for March 8.
https://www.climate.gov/news-features/b ... ter’s-fine
Brian

Re: La Nina, now growing

Posted: March 8th, 2018, 9:57 pm
by BDT123
I will start a new thread when NOAA declares la Nina over. May take a month or two, we'll see.
I think it's cool that we have the magnificent forecasting and observation capabilities of NOAA to give us some hints on how hard our weather will be. This relates to preparations for bees' feed and other needs. If I am out to lunch on this, let me know and I'll stop posting.
Like I said previously, I thank the American taxpayers for this magnificent ability to understand what is happening with our weather and why. Totally awesome. Thank you, y'all.
Brian

Re: La Nina, now growing

Posted: March 9th, 2018, 7:34 am
by Allen Dick
I do appreciate your posting this, although I found the sites a bit too much information for my casual interest.

I think we'd all find it very helpful if you can post a short summary of how you understand the current predictions will play out locally each time.

(And -- unrelated to bees -- I'd personally like to know whether, as I heard recently, there is a greater likelihood of a tornado in La Paz, BCS, MX this summer)

Re: La Nina, now growing

Posted: March 21st, 2018, 11:18 pm
by BDT123
Latest discussion from NOAA.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf
From March 19. It appears that the normal temps off the coast of Peru and Ecuador have cooled below La Nina levels again. I don't think the analysts have a clue what this means, but we are having some 'interesting' weather this season in North America.
Only 2 weeks ago it looked like La Nina was going to fade. Sea surface Temps off Peru and Ecuador had risen above the 'normal' line. Now, not so much; back to La Nina temps, -0.7 C below 'normal'.
This could get interesting. Or, maybe not.
Certainly a longer cold period in Drayton Valley than in recent memory. Last year pollen was coming in on March 28th/29th. Nothing in bloom yet, Aspens or willows, not even bud. 2 feet of snow on the ground and more forecast. Yikes!
Brian

Re: La Nina, now growing

Posted: March 21st, 2018, 11:23 pm
by BDT123
Allen, presently no tornadoes forecast for La Paz, Baja.
Strong likelihood of tropical storms and hurricanes sometime in next 2 years!
Likelihood increases with time. Your call on where to put the boat.

Re: La Nina, now growing

Posted: March 22nd, 2018, 6:54 am
by Allen Dick
Thanks. Re: MX, I'll keep watching.

Snow is finally starting to melt in Swalwell. Finally. Next: flooding, I'm afraid.

Re: La Nina, now growing

Posted: April 12th, 2018, 3:47 pm
by BDT123
Latest Enso blog post from the NOAA website.
https://www.climate.gov/news-features/b ... ks-beneath
The blogger thinks there is evidence that we will see ENSO neutral conditions by May. That is sea surface temperatures within +/- 0.5 degrees C compared to long term average SST.
Time will tell.
Brian

Re: La Nina, now growing

Posted: April 12th, 2018, 4:03 pm
by BDT123
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... sodisc.pdf
A discussion of recent ENSO conditions, dated April 12.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ts-web.pdf
A detailed look at ENSO conditions, dated March 9.
The detail look shows effects on US temperature and precipitation for the past 30 days and 90 days. These are on slides near end of the document.
Brian