From: Eric & Allen
Date: 3/11/98
Time: 8:30:51 AM
Remote Name: 198.161.229.183
From: Self <allend>
To: Eric Abell <eabell@compusmart.ab.ca>
Subject: Re: Got your sample
Date sent: Wed, 11 Mar 1998 07:38:35 -0600
> >I wonder what your results were? We could not do the math, since > >we do not know what dilution you used. > > > >These results are quite consistent compared to our previous tests, > >and since they are from the same sample, I would conclude that it > >is not our microscopy or other lab procedures that account for the > >variability that initially concerned us, and have to go back to > >the sample size as the likely culprit.
> I don't know what you mean by the sample size as the likely culprit.
I was referring to our variation in results using the same source hives. Our lab work seems very consistent, as is borne out by Jon's results using your sample.
> I had 1 ml per bee. My arithmetic on my sample was 4 million > although I do not have me book here and it might have been 40 > million. Naw! 4 million is enough.
We got (96+93+66+86) 4 X 10^6 ------------ X -------- = 4,262,500 4 X 80 1
> If my arithmetic on your work is correct you will be at about 4 > million as well.
Yup.
> I am not too concerned with the millions of spores. When to see 1 > spore per square translates to 4 million the numbers are too big > for me to understand. What I do understand is that 4 million is an > infection that is easily seen.
Right. And it means some bees have much more.
> I am not nearly as precise as you. I count spores and if I get > around 16 in a big square I know that is about 4 million. I can > quickly count several more big squares and see if there is still > about 16. That's it.
Well, if we are just deciding whether to treat, then that's fine, but if we want to prove whether a treatment works or not, we have to be more precise and keep good records -- unless the treatment is 100% effective, which most are not.
Moreover, when we are measuring the hives in advance of treatment or after, it would be nice if the same hives yielded results that were the same every time, not what we got: millions in one sample and zero in another sample taken from the same hives at the same time. Results like that would make our work meaningless.
I think that, if we want any respect from others for our work, we have to be thorough and account for discrepancies. Otherwise our efforts will join the vast supply of bad science out there. I think our goal is to do respectably good work that stands up to some examination. I would hate to have it ignored -- assuming we actually do something -- because we were sloppy in our lab work and people doubted our other work as a result. As it has been said, "Not only must Caesar's wife be virtuous, but she must be *seen* to be virtuous".
> From the samples I did (4 positive, 6 negative I believe) they were > at 4,4,6,40 million. Wow, is 40 million every easy to see.
That's what we expected when we first peeked into the microscope. After looking at several samples and not seeing any nosema, we thought it must be our microscope and went and got another. We are now much more confident. Finding a sample with real, measurable nosema helped us get over our fears of inadequacy quite quickly.
BTW, Jon thinks that a good scope with a light built in is pretty necessary for this work. Our junior scope is almost no good for this, so we have to get out the catalogue and start shopping -- unless we send our samples to you. But I think we are too impatient for results to wait on the mail. I'll let you know after I look at the prices.
> At least you know that you are looking at the same thing as I am. > I think you also know that your initial Nosema level is not at all high.
That will be a problem to evaluate. It is much easier if the initial levels are above the 'noise' level.
> Let's hope we get some useful results after the patties.
Yes. BTW, Barrie did not sat how much fumigillan he uses per patty, did he? need to know. We are making patties now. Are you planning to evaluate drenching too?
Allen
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